Can Cardano Slip Below $0.30? ETF Speculation and Analyst Warnings Cloud ADA Outlook

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Cardano (ADA) is trading around $0.78–$0.80, struggling beneath a strong resistance at $0.83–$0.85, where the 50/100/200-day EMAs converge. Prediction markets currently assign a 91%–95% chance of U.S. Cardano spot ETF approval, with dates tentatively set for late October 2025.

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This narrative has helped stabilize sentiment after September’s decline. Bulls believe institutional access could mirror BTC/ETH’s ETF strategy by increasing liquidity and expanding demand.

However, options activity remains subdued, and recent long liquidations suggest traders are cautious about chasing gains before a clear breakout. If ADA closes above $0.85, potential upward targets are $0.87 (Fib 0.382) and $0.90 (Fib 0.5).

Cardano (ADA) Key Levels: $0.78 Support, Then $0.75 and $0.71

The Cardano (ADA) near-term structure is a range between $0.78 and $0.83 after a pullback from highs near $0.95. Momentum has improved from oversold levels, but Parabolic SAR remains above the price, and the trend hasn’t fully flipped.

Immediate support is at $0.78, with deeper liquidity pockets at $0.75 and $0.71; a failure there exposes $0.68 as the last major defense. Analysts also point out a developing death-cross risk on lower timeframes, implying rallies could fade without new catalysts.

Macro factors remain influential: tighter financial conditions or a Bitcoin retrace can reduce altcoin bids, capping ADA under resistance even if ETF headlines stay strong.

Cardano ADA ADAUSD

ADA's price trends sideways on the daily chart. Source: ADAUSD on Tradingview

The 2026 Bear Case: Why Sub-$0.30 Isn’t Impossible

Beyond the next few weeks, some strategists warn of a path where ADA may revisit sub-$0.30 in 2026. The reasoning: at a roughly $34B market cap near $0.80, multiples might shrink unless usage growth significantly accelerates.

While Cardano promotes research-driven upgrades (Ouroboros Leios, the Omega roadmap) and has an eight-year record with no downtime, critics point to slow app adoption, capital shifting to newer ecosystems, and ETF attention potentially directing flows into a few large caps.

If global liquidity tightens, ETFs underperform, or structural demand weakens, a prolonged cycle could push ADA toward value zones below $0.30, where longer-term buyers might enter.

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In the short term, watch $0.83–$0.85 for a trend reversal and $0.78/$0.75 on the downside. The ETF story provides ADA with a real catalyst, but actual delivery and demand must materialize. Without that, the 2026 sub-$0.30 scenario remains a possible risk, especially if macroeconomic headwinds emerge.

Cover image from ChatGPT, ADAUSD chart from Tradingview

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